Analysts cast doubt on Nokia's mobile growth prediction

Analysts at IDC predict annual growth in mobile phone sales will drop below 10 percent this year, casting doubt on Nokia's more upbeat outlook for 2008.
Nokia and the analysts both put the number of phones sold in 2007 at around 1.14 billion, or 12.4 percent more than were sold in 2006, according to IDC.

But it's unrealistic to expect that growth to continue, IDC analysts said in a report published Friday.

"We expect growth to be in the single digits throughout 2008, and most likely for years to follow," they wrote.

On Thursday, Nokia had issued a more upbeat prediction, of 10 percent growth in mobile phone shipments in 2008 -- and bullishly predicted that its share will increase beyond the 40 percent of the market it claimed for the fourth quarter.

That's one figure IDC agreed with, adding that Nokia shipped more units in the fourth quarter than the next three vendors
combined: Samsung captured 13.9 percent of the market for the quarter (up from 11 percent a year earlier), Motorola 12.2 percent (down from 22 percent) and Sony Ericsson had 9.2 percent.

Motorola's dramatic fall to third place during the year was caused by missed opportunities in China and the market for 3G (third generation) handsets; it is renewing its product range, but will take until 2009 to recover, said IDC.

For the full year, Nokia once again took top honors,