Saturday, February 9, 2008

Wall Street Beat: Cisco forecast weighs on sector

A weak forecast from Cisco marked another roller coaster week for technology companies on the stock market.
The Nasdaq, home to many tech companies, suffered a gut-wrenching 3.1 percent drop Tuesday after a U.S. service sector report showed a decline in the nonmanufacturing index from December to January. Though the index recovered somewhat during the rest of the week, the Tuesday drop was yet another demonstration that IT investors are worried that a broad economic slowdown will affect technology. The decline in the nonmanufacturing sector was the first such drop since the beginning of 2003.

Cisco's earnings report on Wednesday reinforced concerns that the broader economy will have an impact on IT. Cisco forecast revenue for its current fiscal quarter to increase 10 percent, compared to analyst consensus expectations of 15 percent, according to Thomson Financial. On a conference call with analysts, CEO John Chambers said the upcoming quarters will be "extremely challenging."

Confirming fears of market watchers, he also noted that "we are seeing our U.S. and European customers becoming increasingly cautious."

However, sales for the fiscal quarter ending Jan. 26 were up by 16.5 percent to US$9.8 billion. The company has been saying for some time that it will sustain double-digit growth through the rest of the decade by incorporating data, voice, video and mobile capabilities -- its "quadruple play" -- across product lines.

Despite the muted forecast, market watchers still have faith in the company. Company shares rose slightly the day after the report, closing at $23.38, up by $0.30.

The quadruple play pitch still resonates with analysts, and several company watchers noted that Cisco shares have declined along with the wider market over the last few months, giving it a good valuation for long-term investors. Pacific Crest analyst Tim Daubenspeck upgraded the stock to "Outperform" from "Sector Perform."

"Ultimately, we believe that many of the drivers are firmly in place for Cisco to achieve its long-term growth forecast of 12 percent to 17 percent," he said in a research note.

Chambers' cautious forecast, however, could have a bad effect on its suppliers and customers, including electronics manufacturing services and telecom companies. On Thursday, Qwest Communications dropped $0.29 to close at $5.27, Sprint Nextel declined by $0.6 to close at $9.56, and Nortel Networks dropped $0.55 to $10.99.

In other telecom-sector news, Alcatel-Lucent on Friday said revenue for its fourth quarter increased 18 percent to $7.61 billion. The company, however, suffered a net loss of $3.76 billion, mainly because of a writedown related to the shrinking value of assets from Lucent. Company shares declined by $0.29 to $5.96 in midafternoon trading.

Citigroup Global Equity Research said that the Cisco forecast does not bode well for electronics manufacturing suppliers. "Simply put this is not good news for EMS [electronics manufacturing services] companies," wrote Citigroup's Jim Suva in a research note.

Such companies include Jabil Circuit, Celestica and Smart Modular Technologies, he noted.

In other technology sectors, Time Warner's plans to split up the Internet access and audience businesses of its AOL unit, reiterated by CEO Jeff Bewkes Wednesday, gave a temporary boost to Time Warner shares. Time Warner wants to grow AOL's ad-supported audience business, including online services and content.

The company had said before that it would at some point run the two businesses as separate entities, to better focus on the advertising business. Nevertheless, company shares rose $0.31 Wednesday to close at $15.71.

But the company has an uphill battle. In the fourth quarter, AOL's ad revenue increased 18 percent, less than the 25 percent industry average. And it faces not only Google, but a potentially strengthened Microsoft, if its bid to buy Yahoo succeeds.

Green Grid lays out ambitious action program

A lack of E.U. regulatory or voluntary initiatives addressing the energy efficiency of data centres risked the creation of "confusion, mixed messages and uncoordinated activities," industry consortium the Green Grid was told this week.
The consortium held its technical committee meeting in San Francisco this week with input from U.S., Japanese and European concerns.

From a European perspective it was said that there was a "need for independent assessment and coordination tailored to European conditions such as the climate and energy markets regulation" and a proposed Code of Conduct "to provide a platform to bring together European stakeholders to discuss and agree voluntary actions which will improve energy efficiency."

The committee heard that data center energy use in U.S. by 2011 will equal 100 billion kWh or 2.5 percent of total electricity costing about US$7 billion. In 2006, it was $4.5 billion. Power demand is growing by 12 percent per year and cooling and power needs can be described as "industrial in terms of size and complexity."

The grid laid out a number of initiatives including save energy now, outlined metrics for energy use in data centers and attempted to lay the ground work for international agreements on a code of conduct, product specifications and best practice.

The consortium set its goal of a 10 percent data center energy savings by 2011, equivalent to cutting 10.7 billion kWh and reducing green house gas emissions by 6.5 million tonnes of CO2.

By 2011 the Green Grid hopes to achieve collective goals of 3000 US data centers to have completed awareness training and 1500 to have applied assessment tools to cut energy use. The initial target is also for 200 enterprise data centers to have improved energy efficiency through accelerated virtualisation, deployment of high efficiency servers, use of new power sources such as fuel cells, optimised cooling and combining heat and power systems. It aims to have 200 qualified specialists in data center energy efficiency to be have been appointed.

It is hoped that the the savings will be made through power conversion and distribution, high voltage distribution, move to DC power, alternative power generation such as on site generation through renewables, and use of fuel cells and waste heat for cooling.

Microsoft's price for Yahoo loses value in week since offer

Microsoft may end up having to raise the amount it is willing to pay for Yahoo if the software company's stock continues to drop while Yahoo's continues to rise.
In the week since Microsoft made its surprise bid for Yahoo, the price Microsoft is willing to offer the Internet company has dropped by nearly 7 percent as Microsoft's share price has fallen. In the meantime, Yahoo's shares have risen in value, trading at nearly the US$31 per share Microsoft was willing to pay, making the company potentially worth a higher asking price and the offer vulnerable to higher bids.

Microsoft announced its offer to acquire Yahoo on Feb. 1, saying it would pay $31 for half of Yahoo's outstanding shares and 0.9509 of a Microsoft share for the other half. Microsoft's half cash/half stock offer to Yahoo was valued at about $44.6 billion at the time it was made.

The stock half was based on the $32.60 Microsoft share price at the end of Thursday, the day before the deal was announced last Friday. Yahoo's share price at the close of market on Jan. 31 was $19.18. The cash half of the deal was $22.3 billion, which, when considering Microsoft agreed to pay $31 per share, is based on half of Yahoo's outstanding shares being 719,354,838.

Microsoft has not publicly said what number of outstanding shares it has based its offer price on. In its form 10-Q filed Nov. 9, 2007, Yahoo's outstanding shares as of Oct. 31, 2007, were 1,336,444,034. However, cutting that number in half and multiplying it by Microsoft's $31 per-share offer adds up to $20.7 billion, not the $22.3 billion in cash Microsoft is offering.

By Friday afternoon, Microsoft's share price was down about 12 percent at $28.4. Based on that price and assuming that 719,354,838 is the other half of Yahoo's outstanding shares -- and then factoring in the $22.3 billion cash offer -- the amount of the bid stands at $41.7 billion.

Microsoft's stock is likely down due to its offer for a number of reasons, said a financial analyst who was interviewed Friday and asked not to be named. Investors may not be happy with the money Microsoft is willing to pay for Yahoo, and strategic questions surrounding how the companies will pull off a merger successfully also are driving the stock down.

Moreover, the deal is expected to dilute Microsoft's earnings in fiscal 2009 and perhaps even in fiscal 2010, so the company's earnings predictions likely will come down, the analyst said.

On the other hand, Yahoo's stock has been buoyed by speculation there could be other, higher bidders, for the company now that Microsoft has shown its hand. Yahoo stock has risen nearly 34 percent since the deal was announced; on Friday afternoon it was trading at nearly $29, which is only slightly lower than the current per-share for the stock half of Microsoft's offer.

Microsoft has declined to comment about whether it will adjust its offer so the final amount of the deal will be the original $44.6 billion offered. The cash half for the time being remains the same, sources close to the company said Friday. However, this could change in last-minute dealings if Microsoft's stock continues to lose value while Yahoo's rises, and other companies offer competitive bids for Yahoo in the meantime.

Microsoft buys 3D company for Virtual Earth

Microsoft has bought Caligari, a developer of 3D modeling software, in a move that could help enrich the graphics experience in Microsoft's Virtual Earth mapping system.

Caligari started making 3D modeling and animation software for the Amiga computer in the mid-1980s. Its signature tool, called trueSpace, has a user interface that makes it easy to build complex 3D animations, according to an entry on the Virtual Earth blog on Wednesday announcing the acquisition.

Caligari has offices in Mountain View, California, and Slovakia. Its development team will work with the Virtual Earth group, and Caligari's "tightly knit community of beta testers" will stay the same, said Roman Ormandy, founder and CEO of Caligari, in a blog posting. He said the company will become a wholly owned subsidiary of Microsoft.

"Now we will have more resources to rely on, larger market to consider and I hope more fun doing that," he wrote.

Microsoft was not available for additional comment.

In December, Microsoft bought Multimap, which also became a wholly owned subsidiary and works with the Virtual Earth and Search groups. Multimap develops online mapping services. At the time of that acquisition, Microsoft said the buy would help it expand its online services offerings to consumers and businesses.

Virtual Earth's 3D version, currently in beta, lets users zoom in and out of 3D maps of cities and natural areas. It is similar to Google's Google Earth product.

Antivirus company's Web site serves up malware

The Web site for Indian antivirus vendor AvSoft Technologies has been hacked and is being used to install malicious software on visitors' computers, security researchers said Thursday.
The download section of AvSoft's S-cop Web site hosts the malicious code, according to Roger Thompson, chief research officer with security vendor AVG. "They let one of their pages get hit by an iFrame injection," he said. "It shows that anyone can be a victim. ... It's hard to protect Web servers properly."

The technique used on the site has been seen in thousands of similar hacks over the past few months. The attackers open an invisible iFrame Window within the victim's browser, which redirects the client to another server. That server, in turn, launches attack code that attempts to install malicious software on the victim's computer.

The malicious software is a variant of the Virut virus family.

The iFrame pages are commonly used by Web developers to insert content into their Web pages, but because it is possible to create an invisible iFrame window, the technology is often misused by hackers as a way to silently redirect victims to malicious Web sites.

AvSoft, based in New Delhi, sells an antivirus product called SmartCOP and has sold a second antivirus product called Smartdog. The company, which is not well-known in the U.S., also specializes in recovering data lost due to virus attacks. The company could not be reached for comment Thursday afternoon.

That data recovery service could come in handy for some, as Virut is known as a "parasitic infector" virus that is extremely difficult to remove. "It infects all of your programs on your local hard drives, and then it starts hitting your network drives as well the first time you run," Thompson said.

Fortunately, the malware used to install Virut exploits only well-known bugs, meaning that users who are running antivirus software on fully patched systems will probably not be infected by the attack in its current state, security experts say.

Nobody knows how the malware got onto the Web site in the first place. News of the hack was reported on the Full Disclosure security discussion list on Thursday.

McAfee Security Research Manager Dave Marcus believes that the site was compromised by exploiting a Web programming error, most likely in the site's SQL or PHP code. Security experts say that criminals have written automated programs that scour the Web for these types of flaws and then automatically infect sites, making this an increasingly common problem.

Alcatel-Lucent suffers Q4 loss on writedown

Alcatel-Lucent reported higher sales but a net loss for the fourth quarter due to a big writedown in its CDMA (code division multiple access) and IP (Internet protocol) multimedia services businesses.
The company said revenue rose 18 percent to €5.2 billion on the back of strong performance at several of its major business units. But despite the stronger sales the company saw its net profit plunge into the red to the tune of €2.6 billion. This was largely due to the €2.5 billion writedown.

Its wireline and wireless carrier business was strong and revenues were €3.7 billion in the quarter against €3.2 billion during the same period a year earlier. The company benefited from strong growth in carrier-type optical networking, and the GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications) and WCDMA (Wideband CDMA) sectors. Broadband access revenue fell on the back of a decline in the number of DSL lines delivered.

Revenues were up 27 percent in the services business to €1 billion after the company won large network operations contracts and worked on IPTV and IP network integration projects. Its enterprise business segment saw revenues of €435 million, up about 4 percent, thanks to strong momentum in Europe and Asia.

The report came with bad news for investors. The company suspended its dividend payment for 2007 "in the light of these results and or a more uncertain market outlook," it said.

"We just thought very plainly that it was good financial discipline looking at both our net income in '07 and the very tough macroeconomic environment," said Hubert de Pesquidoux, chief financial officer, on a conference call.

CEO Patricia Russo warned that the company doesn't have a positive short-term outlook, particularly with a looming recession in the U.S. given Alcatel-Lucent's dependance on business there.

"There is a level of uncertainty ... that leaves a lot unknown," Russo said.

Despite interest in IP networking and 3G broadband services, growth over the next year is likely to be flat or just slightly up, Russo said. Taking into account currency differences, the market will likely be down, she said.

Some customers are also pursuing network-sharing arrangements, which could affect how much those companies spend on their own infrastructure, she said.

Russo defended the 2006 merger of Alcatel and Lucent and said the company is still trying to reduce costs. So far, about 6,700 employees have been let go in a restructuring plan that will shed a total of 12,500 employees, she said.

Samsung shows latest Ultra-edition handset

Samsung Electronics will present the latest model in its popular Ultra edition range of cell phones at the Mobile World Congress exhibition in Barcelona next week.
The phone, dubbed "Soul," is a slider-type handset that with an eye-catching touch panel under the display. The panel displays navigation icons that change according to the current application being run on the handset. For example, in camera mode icons such as zoom and brightness appear while music player functions appear in music mode.

The quad-band GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications) handset supports data downloads of up to 7.2M bps (bits per second) over HSDPA (High Speed Downlink Packet Access) networks and also has Bluetooth 2.0 wireless networking.

Other features include a 5-megapixel camera with face detection and image stabilizer, FM radio with RDS (Radio Data System) and a music system based on technology from Bang & Olufsen.

The phone will be available worldwide and hit Europe in April.

Samsung's Ultra line has proved a hit with style-conscious consumers. All phones in the range emphasize thinness and the new Soul handset is no different at 12.9 millimeters thick. But it's nowhere near as slim as the Ultra 5.9 handset that Samsung unveiled this time last year in Barcelona. The candy bar phone, as the name suggests, is just 5.9 millimeters thick.

Barclays sells US call center to Indian outsourcer

Barclays' credit card business in the U.S. has struck a five-year deal with Indian outsourcer Firstsource Solutions to run a call center in Colorado Springs, Colorado.
The value of the deal could be as much as US$80 million, according to a notice on Friday sent by Firstsource to the Bombay Stock Exchange.

Barclays opened the operations center in 2005 to primarily handle customer-service calls for its U.S. credit card business. The call center handles about 15,000 inbound calls each day and employs about 370 people, all of whom will continue to work with Barclays' customers. The operations center also provides collection and fraud-prevention services, Barclays said.

The assets of the Colorado Springs facility will be owned by Firstsource, of Mumbai, which plans to use the facility to serve U.S. customers of some of its other clients in addition to Barclays, a spokeswoman for Firstsource said Friday.

Firstsource is also allowed to hire more staff, and the company said it plans to expand its operations, the spokeswoman said. Firstsource already employs about 2,500 people in the U.S.

A number of Indian outsourcers, including Tata Consultancy Services and HCL Technologies, have done similar deals with clients in the U.S. and U.K.

The deals give Indian companies access to new clients who don't necessarily want to trim their domestic staff but would rather turn them over to outside management.

Mozilla patches three critical Firefox flaws

ozilla issued 10 patches on Friday for its Firefox browser, including three for critical vulnerabilities. The latest version of Firefox is now 2.0.0.12.
One of the critical vulnerabilities, MFSA 2008-06, is a problem in the way the browser handles images on certain Web pages.

It's possible to exploit the flaw to steal a person's Web browsing history, forward that information and then crash the browser. It may also be possible to run arbitrary code on a machine, Mozilla said.

A second critical vulnerability can enable a privilege escalation attack or remote code execution.

The last critical problem involves a memory corruption flaw that "we presume that with enough effort at least some of these could be exploited to run arbitrary code," Mozilla said.

Also notable is a fix for a problem with Mozilla's "chrome" protocol, which is the term Mozilla uses for its user interface. The problem involves some of Firefox's add-ons, or applications that users can download which extend browser functionality.

The vulnerability would let an attacker determine what applications are installed on a person's PC, which could give clues to how the machine could be compromised, Mozilla said. However, a victim would have to be lured to a special malicious Web page designed to take advantage of the flaw.